Financial Projections: 5-Year Model¶
Date: 2026-04-03 Depends on: 002, 003, 004, 009 Status: Complete — but rates are outdated. This is the "Variant A: Aggressive Growth" model. For the side-project-compatible "Variant B: Steady Growth" model, see 008.
Note: The marketplace rates used in this document (€0.90–1.05/hr) are based on early 2025 data and are ~28% too high. See 010 for the analysis. The revised BUSINESS-PLAN.md uses corrected rates (€0.65/hr base). This document is retained for reference as the aggressive-variant structure; the actual revenue and profit figures should be read with a ~28% revenue haircut.
Summary¶
Aggressive growth path: 4 → 16 → 48 → 80 → 128 GPUs over 5 years across 6 solar farm sites. Requires ~€1.5M cumulative investment, external funding from Phase 1, and full-time commitment from Year 3. EBIT-positive in Year 3, €302k EBIT by Year 5 on 34% margins. See 008 for the recommended alternative: start with Variant B (self-funded, side-project) and switch to Variant A when data warrants.
Scenario: Phased Growth at Solar Farm Sites¶
This model assumes redc starts with one solar farm partner, proves the model, and expands to additional sites.
Phase Timeline¶
| Phase | Timeline | GPUs | Sites | Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 — Validation | Month 1–6 | 4 A100 | 1 (own/partner) | Prove unit economics on Vast.ai |
| 1 — First site | Month 7–18 | 16 A100 | 1 solar farm | First PPA, containerized deployment |
| 2 — Expansion | Month 19–36 | 48 A100 | 2–3 solar farms | Standardized deployment, first direct customers |
| 3 — Scale | Month 37–60 | 128+ GPUs (mixed gen) | 4–6 sites | Platform layer, possible next-gen GPUs |
Assumptions¶
Revenue Assumptions¶
| Parameter | Phase 0–1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary sales channel | Vast.ai marketplace | 60% marketplace, 40% direct | 40% marketplace, 60% direct |
| Avg effective rate (A100, after fees) | €0.90/hr | €0.95/hr (direct customers pay more) | €1.05/hr (brand + green premium) |
| Utilization rate | 65% | 70% | 75% |
| Revenue per GPU per year | €5,126 | €5,825 | €6,899 |
Rate assumptions: Marketplace rates stay roughly flat (supply and demand both growing). Direct customer rates include a modest 10–15% green premium. Phase 3 assumes some migration to next-gen GPUs with higher rates.
Cost Assumptions¶
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| GPU cost (used A100 80GB) | €12,000 | Declining over time; conservative to hold flat |
| Server platform per 4 GPUs | €4,000 | Used dual-socket EPYC or Xeon |
| Containerized DC module | €25,000 | 20-ft, fitted for 2–4 servers, basic cooling |
| Solar PPA rate | €0.05/kWh | Behind-the-meter, long-term |
| Biogas PPA rate | €0.08–0.10/kWh | Behind-the-meter, 24/7 baseload. See 009 |
| Grid backup rate | €0.25/kWh | For hours when solar insufficient (eliminated if biogas available) |
| Solar coverage (without biogas) | 40% of energy needs | Conservative for southern Germany |
| Biogas/hybrid coverage | Up to 100% | If biogas available at site, grid backup is eliminated |
| Internet per site | €300/month | Fiber where available, wireless backup |
| Maintenance per GPU/year | €600 | Parts, travel, remote hands |
| Insurance per site/year | €2,000 | Equipment + liability |
| Company overhead (admin, accounting, legal) | €12,000/yr Phase 0–1, growing | GmbH operating costs |
Financing Assumptions¶
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Financing method | Self-funded Phase 0; bank loan or investor from Phase 1 |
| Interest rate (KfW or Hausbank) | 5% |
| Depreciation: GPUs | 3-year straight-line |
| Depreciation: Servers | 3-year straight-line |
| Depreciation: Container + infrastructure | 7-year straight-line |
| Tax rate (GmbH) | ~30% (Körperschaftsteuer + Gewerbesteuer + Soli) |
Year-by-Year Projections¶
Year 1 (Phase 0 + start of Phase 1)¶
Activity: Validate with 4 GPUs at home/office (Month 1–6), deploy 16 GPUs at first solar farm (Month 7–12).
| Line item | H1 (4 GPUs, grid) | H2 (16 GPUs, solar farm) | Year 1 Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €10,253 | €41,010 | €51,263 |
| COGS | |||
| Electricity (grid) | -€1,226 | -€2,453 | -€3,679 |
| Electricity (solar PPA) | €0 | -€982 | -€982 |
| Internet | -€1,800 | -€1,800 | -€3,600 |
| Maintenance | -€1,200 | -€4,800 | -€6,000 |
| Gross profit | €6,027 | €30,975 | €37,002 |
| Operating expenses | |||
| Hardware depreciation | -€8,667 | -€34,667 | -€43,334 |
| Infrastructure depreciation | €0 | -€1,786 | -€1,786 |
| Insurance | €0 | -€1,000 | -€1,000 |
| Company overhead | -€6,000 | -€6,000 | -€12,000 |
| Site lease / PPA minimum | €0 | -€600 | -€600 |
| EBIT | -€8,640 | -€13,078 | -€21,718 |
| Interest expense | -€3,500 | ||
| EBT | -€25,218 |
Year 1 is a loss. This is expected — heavy depreciation on newly purchased hardware plus ramp-up period. The loss carries forward for tax purposes.
Cumulative investment by end of Year 1: ~€245,000 - Phase 0: 4 GPUs + server: €52,000 - Phase 1: 12 more GPUs + 3 servers + container: €193,000
Year 2 (Phase 1 full year + start of Phase 2)¶
Activity: 16 GPUs running full year at Site 1. Deploy 32 additional GPUs at Sites 2–3 in H2.
| Line item | H1 (16 GPUs) | H2 (48 GPUs) | Year 2 Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €46,601 | €83,882 | €130,483 |
| COGS | -€7,118 | -€16,016 | -€23,134 |
| Gross profit | €39,483 | €67,866 | €107,349 |
| Operating expenses | |||
| Hardware depreciation | -€34,667 | -€69,334 | -€104,001 |
| Infrastructure depreciation | -€1,786 | -€5,357 | -€7,143 |
| Insurance | -€1,000 | -€3,000 | -€4,000 |
| Company overhead | -€8,000 | -€10,000 | -€18,000 |
| Site costs | -€1,200 | -€3,600 | -€4,800 |
| Sales / marketing | -€1,000 | -€2,000 | -€3,000 |
| EBIT | -€33,595 | ||
| Interest expense | -€7,000 | ||
| EBT | -€40,595 |
Year 2 is still a loss, driven by depreciation of the expanding fleet. But gross margin is healthy at 82%.
Cumulative investment by end of Year 2: ~€631,000 - Phase 2: 32 more GPUs + 8 servers + 2 containers: ~€386,000 additional
Year 3 (Phase 2 full year)¶
Activity: 48 GPUs running at 3 sites, full year. Focus on utilization and direct customer acquisition. No major new hardware spend.
| Line item | Year 3 Total |
|---|---|
| Revenue (48 GPUs, 70% util, €0.95/hr avg) | €279,601 |
| COGS | -€41,501 |
| Gross profit | €238,100 |
| Hardware depreciation | -€104,001 |
| Infrastructure depreciation | -€10,714 |
| Insurance | -€6,000 |
| Company overhead | -€24,000 |
| Site costs | -€7,200 |
| Sales / marketing | -€6,000 |
| Staffing (part-time ops) | -€18,000 |
| EBIT | €62,185 |
| Interest expense | -€8,000 |
| EBT | €54,185 |
| Tax (~30%) | -€16,256 |
| Net income | €37,929 |
Year 3: First profitable year. The fleet is mature, depreciation stabilizes, and direct customers improve the average rate.
Year 4 (Phase 3 begins)¶
Activity: Expand to 80 GPUs across 5 sites. Start mixing in next-gen used GPUs (H100 secondhand). Launch platform features for direct customers.
| Line item | Year 4 Total |
|---|---|
| Revenue (80 GPUs avg, 72% util, €1.00/hr avg) | €505,267 |
| COGS | -€65,850 |
| Gross profit | €439,417 |
| Depreciation (hardware + infra) | -€158,000 |
| Operating expenses | -€85,000 |
| Staffing (1.5 FTE) | -€72,000 |
| EBIT | €124,417 |
| Interest + tax | -€50,000 |
| Net income | €74,417 |
Year 5 (Full Scale)¶
Activity: 128 GPUs across 6 sites. Mature platform, 60% direct customers. Begin licensing model exploration.
| Line item | Year 5 Total |
|---|---|
| Revenue (128 GPUs avg, 75% util, €1.05/hr avg) | €884,218 |
| COGS | -€102,000 |
| Gross profit | €782,218 |
| Depreciation | -€210,000 |
| Operating expenses | -€120,000 |
| Staffing (2–3 FTE) | -€150,000 |
| EBIT | €302,218 |
| Interest + tax | -€105,000 |
| Net income | €197,218 |
Summary: 5-Year Financial Overview¶
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPUs (year-end) | 16 | 48 | 48 | 80 | 128 |
| Sites | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Revenue | €51k | €130k | €280k | €505k | €884k |
| EBIT | -€22k | -€34k | +€62k | +€124k | +€302k |
| Net income | -€25k | -€41k | +€38k | +€74k | +€197k |
| Cumulative net income | -€25k | -€66k | -€28k | +€46k | +€243k |
| Cumulative investment | €245k | €631k | €631k | €1.0M | €1.5M |
Break-even (cumulative): Mid Year 4. Cash flow positive: Year 3 (operational), Year 4 (after debt service).
Key Metrics for Investors¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total 5-year investment | ~€1.5M |
| Total 5-year revenue | ~€1.85M |
| Total 5-year net income | ~€243k |
| Year 5 EBIT margin | 34% |
| Year 5 revenue run rate | €884k |
| Year 5 revenue per employee | €295k–€442k |
| Payback on total invested capital | ~4.5 years |
| Gross margin (stable state) | 80–85% |
| EBIT margin (stable state, Year 5) | 34% |
Sensitivity Analysis¶
Revenue Sensitivity (Year 3, 48 GPUs)¶
| Variable | -20% | Base | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilization (56% / 70% / 84%) | -€20k | +€38k | +€96k |
| Rate (€0.76 / €0.95 / €1.14/hr) | -€18k | +€38k | +€94k |
| GPU count (38 / 48 / 58) | -€3k | +€38k | +€80k |
Utilization and rate are equally important. A 20% drop in either makes the year unprofitable. This is the core business risk.
Cost Sensitivity (Year 3)¶
| Variable | Impact of +20% increase |
|---|---|
| GPU purchase price | -€21k on net income (depreciation impact) |
| Electricity price | -€8k |
| Internet cost | -€1.4k |
| Maintenance | -€3.6k |
GPU purchase price is the largest cost lever. If A100 prices drop (likely as H100 saturates), the model improves. If they rise (unlikely), it hurts significantly.
Funding Requirements¶
Phase 0 — Self-Funded (€52k)¶
- 4 GPUs + server for validation
- Can be funded from personal savings
- Risk: limited to hardware depreciation if model doesn't work
Phase 1 — Seed (€193k needed, €245k cumulative)¶
- Options: KfW startup loan (ERP-Gründerkredit), bank loan with hardware as collateral, or angel investor
- Hardware has tangible resale value — banks understand this
- Business plan required (this analysis series is the foundation)
Phase 2 — Growth (€386k needed, €631k cumulative)¶
- Options: Revenue from Phase 1 + bank expansion loan, or equity raise
- By this point, Phase 1 data proves the unit economics
- Multiple solar farm partnerships demonstrate the model
Phase 3 — Scale (€400k–900k needed)¶
- Options: Revenue reinvestment, project finance (solar-farm-style), or equity round
- Revenue base supports debt service
- Track record enables better financing terms
What This Model Does NOT Include (Upside)¶
- Green premium on rates — modeled at only 5–10%. Could be higher for CSRD-driven customers, especially with 24/7 renewable verification via biogas hybrid.
- Biogas hybrid energy savings — this model uses solar (40%) + grid (60%). A solar+biogas hybrid eliminates grid hours entirely, reducing blended energy cost from ~€0.17/kWh to ~€0.07/kWh. At 128 GPUs (Year 5), this saves ~€31k/year in energy costs alone. See 009.
- Grid services revenue — flexible load can earn demand response payments.
- Platform/licensing revenue — if the model is replicated by third parties using redc's platform.
- GPU price declines — used A100 prices will likely fall, improving unit economics for later phases.
- Next-gen GPU uplift — used H100s will hit the market in 2027–28 at prices below today's A100, with 2–3× the earning potential.
- Government grants — innovation, climate, or regional development funding.
- Negative electricity price hours — Germany had 575 hours of negative prices in 2025. During these hours, grid power is effectively free or even pays the consumer, providing opportunistic ultra-cheap energy.
References & Sources¶
| Claim | Source | How to verify |
|---|---|---|
| Marketplace rates €0.90–1.05/hr (A100) | Vast.ai marketplace data, early 2025 (now outdated — see 010) | vast.ai/console/create |
| GPU cost €12,000 (used A100 80GB) | European secondary market survey (eBay, IT resellers) | Check current listings on eBay.de, Servershop24, etc. |
| Containerized DC module €25,000 | Industry quotes for 20-ft fitted DC container | Request quotes from container DC suppliers (e.g. Rittal, Datwyler, custom builders) |
| Solar PPA rate €0.05/kWh | Derived from analysis 003; reflects behind-the-meter curtailed-solar pricing | Cross-reference with Fraunhofer ISE LCOE study |
| Grid electricity €0.25/kWh | BDEW Strompreisanalyse (industrial rates) | bdew.de/energie/strompreisanalyse |
| KfW interest rate 5% | KfW ERP-Gründerkredit terms | kfw.de (ERP-Gründerkredit — Startgeld / Universell) |
| Tax rate ~30% (GmbH) | KStG §23 (15% KSt) + GewStG (~14–17% GewSt) + SolzG (5.5% of KSt) | gesetze-im-internet.de (KStG, GewStG, SolzG) |
| Depreciation 3yr GPUs/servers | BMF-Schreiben 26.02.2021 (Digital-AfA); AfA-Tabelle | bundesfinanzministerium.de (IV C 3 – S 2190/21/10002 :013) |
| Depreciation 7yr container/infrastructure | AfA-Tabelle for movable assets | bundesfinanzministerium.de (AfA-Tabelle) |