Cross-check: analysis vs. business plan¶
Date: 2026-04-05 (aligned with Phase A — financed colocation). Canonical plan: BUSINESS-PLAN.md §9.0 (first server), §9.1 (illustrative fleet), §10 (gates).
Research archive: Deep-dive analyses live under docs/archive/analysis-v1/ (001–011). They informed earlier plan iterations; the live financial and capital narrative is §9.0, not the old equity-tranche §9.2 five-year tables.
Aligned (no conflict with current master)¶
| Topic | Archive / note | Business plan |
|---|---|---|
| GPU choice | 011, 002 | Used A100 80GB vs 40GB per §6; binding quote path §9.0 (Serverschmiede snapshot ~€58k net) |
| Marketplace rate | 002, 010 corrections | €0,65/h host baseline, flat horizon (§6, §9.0) |
| Cash vs. depreciation | 002 | Cash-positive ~25% util; §6 3-yr depreciation illustration on €58k/4 GPUs |
| First deploy location | 010 flagged home electricity | Phase A: colocation (§1, §8, §9.0). Phase C: RE / container |
| Insurance | 006 catastrophic loss | Elektronikversicherung Day 1; §9.0, §11; colo split clarified §11 |
| Energy thesis | 003, 009 | BtM hybrid §3, §7 — primary for Phase C; Phase A is grid-backed colo |
| Capital path | Superseded equity model | ~€20k founder equity + reserve; hardware ~€58k via Mietkauf (§9.0), not staged ~€182k personal over 5y |
Intentional simplifications (archive goes deeper)¶
- Behind-the-meter law — 006, 010 (historical). Plan: BtM savings for Phase C marketing; lawyer before Phase C IC (§11).
- Utilization — Archive base cases often 70%; §10 Phase A target ≥70–80% rolling after ramp; §9.0 tables use 80% illustrative.
- §6 energy table — Scenarios compare Phase C site economics; §6 states Phase A uses §9.0 colo/fix costs (not the hybrid column for operations).
Validation gaps to close with live contracts (not archive math)¶
- Financing: Binding Mietkauf offer (rate, tenor, down payment, guarantees) → feed §9.0 fix burden.
- Colo: Signed kW model, remote-hands tariffs, port policy → feed OPEX and §11 Phase A table.
- Vast: Rolling net EUR/GPU-h and utilization → §10 gates.
Out of scope in archive but in plan¶
- Starlink vs. fiber — §8 Phase C; not a separate sensitivity in 002/005.
- UG → GmbH — §13; mechanics in german-entity skill.
Summary¶
The master BUSINESS-PLAN.md is on the Phase A financed colo path. Use archive/analysis-v1/ for methodology and history; do not treat 010-validation-report capital totals as current — see banner there and business-plan-revision-history.md.